Flattening which curve?

A statistical analysis by Sean Marie Prythyll A. Patnubay | July 21, 2020

Note (as of August 7, 2021): This was written during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A year later, the data has changed but the situation in the Philippines remains bleak… We are still under the world’s longest lockdown. Estimated herd immunity is by December this year and yet, COVID strikes again with its new variants. Our province’s healthcare system is on the brink of collapse, among many other issues.

I never fully understood the notion of people changing their profile pictures with the frame “flatten the curve” on Facebook until very recently. By recently, I mean this: It has come to light that it is a personal shortcoming that my mind is not programmed statistics-wise when I scroll through that specific social media platform and in doing most matters that are perhaps mundane. I owe it partly to this activity that I was finally able to see the clearer picture.

The data compiled by the John Hopkins University over the past months on Asian countries that (unlike the rest of the world) flattened their curve in terms of the spread of the Coronavirus and not their economy was visualized through a vertical bar graph and line graphs. Compared to the global increase in reported Coronavirus cases from at least 188 countries and territories with confirmed COVID-19 infections as of May 14, 2020 (vertical bar graph to indicate the daily increase in cases in blue accompanied by a yellow line that shows the cumulative cases), the line graphs from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Vietnam’s Coronavirus outbreak presented the 10-day moving average of reported daily new cases from these respective countries. These countries have contained the spread within their borders especially since you can see that their numbers are really low on the y-axis.

“As of May 17, Taiwan with a population of roughly 24 million had only 440 confirmed cases with already 395 recoveries and only seven deaths; Hong Kong with 7.5 million in population, on the other hand, tallied up to 1,055 cases, 1024 recoveries, and only four deaths to boot; and Vietnam with more than 97 million people incurred only 320 cases with 260 recoveries and no deaths.”

As for the rest of the world right now, the theme song is probably “Nowhere to Go But Up” with regards to the number of confirmed cases except that it is totally inappropriate given the context and circumstances but I wager that it would be cathartic to see the global tally of millions finally flatten. The real question, however is not whether or not it would be so but as to when will the theme song change? I hope that by then, the economy’s curve has yet to completely flatten. After all, the goal is not to flatten the economy’s but that of this pandemic.

Some graphs:

Reference: Lee, Yen Nee (2020, May 18). How Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam Contain The Coronavirus Outbreak.​CNBC Newsletters. ​ Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/how-taiwan-hong-kong-vietnam-contain-the-coronavirus-outb reak.html?fbclid=IwAR142JQ1J_HU3z7IS9yds1swmzQs1q1U8DsAiwAFPgc8F2f-D0KIUJ3usQs . Last accessed August 7, 2021.